Researchers from the University of New South Wales (UNSW) in Australia have made new revelations about the evolution of the COVID-19 virus, SARS-CoV-2, suggesting that the virus remains highly adaptable and continues to mutate, potentially shaping future global health responses.
The findings, published on Tuesday, stem from a five-year-long study that tracked how the virus evolves over time when placed under laboratory conditions. The research involved serially passaging 11 samples derived from nine major SARS-CoV-2 variants, including Alpha, Delta, and Omicron strains. This allowed the team to observe how the virus changes genetically over successive generations without the influence of factors like the human immune system or antiviral treatments.
“By growing the virus over many generations in a controlled lab environment, we can observe how it evolves without the influence of the immune system or treatments. That gives us a clearer picture of its natural evolutionary pathways,’’ said Charles Foster, the study’s lead author from UNSW’s School of Biomedical Sciences.
According to a statement from UNSW Sydney, the purpose of this approach was to uncover the virus’s inherent ability to mutate, which could inform strategies for developing more effective vaccines and therapeutic interventions in the future. Foster emphasized the significance of this discovery in predicting the virus’s next moves and preparing public health systems to counter potential threats.
“This approach helps anticipate which mutations may arise next, allowing scientists and public health officials to better prepare vaccines and treatments,” Foster explained.
One of the critical outcomes of the research was the discovery of continuous viral evolution even after more than 100 generations of lab-based growth. The virus not only maintained its ability to mutate but also showed signs of “convergent evolution”—a process where identical or similar mutations repeatedly emerge in different viral strains. Such mutations were particularly noted in the spike protein, which plays a crucial role in allowing the virus to penetrate human cells.
The study also found that parts of the virus other than the spike protein were undergoing changes, sometimes evolving at an even faster rate. These alterations raise concerns about the potential for the virus to sidestep the protective effects of current vaccines.
Importantly, the researchers noted that some of the mutations detected during the study have already been linked to reduced vaccine effectiveness in real-world scenarios. This underscores the virus’s potential to adapt in ways that could compromise existing medical defenses.
“We’ve made all of our sequencing data freely available so other researchers can dig into it, compare it with clinical samples, and hopefully uncover even more about how this virus evolves,’’ Foster added.
The UNSW team hopes their findings will help the global scientific community stay a step ahead of the virus. Understanding these evolutionary patterns, they believe, is essential for anticipating future variants and designing better vaccines and treatments that remain effective even as SARS-CoV-2 continues to change.
Foster stressed the importance of vigilance as the world continues to grapple with COVID-19’s unpredictable nature. “Understanding these evolutionary patterns was crucial for staying ahead of COVID-19 and preparing for whatever comes next,” he said.
The full study has been published in the latest edition of the Journal of Virology.
